NPR: Fukushima Anniversary Discussions

Monday's On Point was a very interesting discussion. There is a real possibility that Japan will mothball all of its nuclear power because the risk the industry poses to all of Japan had been previously underestimated. Download audio.

Likewise, last Tuesday's Fresh Air. Download audio. This is an interview with Dan Edge, the producer of a Frontline documentary about the disaster.

All About Area 51

Terry Gross interviewed Annie Jacobsen on yesterday's Fresh Air about the secret Nevada test site, Area 51. Area 51 was used for the Plumbbob tests. The most scary thing for me was the nuclear test that involved scattering plutonium around the desert via a conventional explosion. I think this test was to simulate possible accident scenarios, such as, a B-52 crash, an accidental bomb drop of an unarmed weapon, etc. I think that the accident scenarios assume that the conventional explosive detonates, but does not cause a nuclear explosion- a dirty bomb scenario. The explosion scatters the core of the weapon, contaminating a wide area with plutonium particles. People were beyond crazy in this era. For whatever reason, after the army got their test results (which showed, I guess, the extent of the contamination), they did minimal cleanup at the test site. That sets up a scenario for desert dust storms containing very nasty radioactive particles. The author notes that this was a missed opportunity to learn how to deal with possible methods of cleanup. I am guessing that they army realized that it was very difficult to deal with the magnitude of the contaminated area- many square miles. Jacobsen notes that whatever they might have learned would've been useful in some accidents that have occurred since that test. Some accidents were actually very similar to the initial test parameters; the author cites a B-52 crash in Spain. The latest similar accident is the explosion of the spent fuel pool at reactor 3 at the Fukushima nuclear plant. The Fairewinds report stated that nuclear material (spent fuel pellets) have been found a mile or more from the site after one of the large explosions.

On to the UFO claims of Area 51. Those involve Mengele designing bodies which would look alien for the Soviet military. Area 51 houses a crashed flying object, but it's not from outer space; it's a Soviet jet-powered hover craft that was piloted by surgically modified dwarfs. Pause, and let that sink in... This strange idea has some value (I guess) for some world war three attack scenarios. Jacobsen cites cases where both Hitler and Stalin expressed interest in this idea because they wanted to repeat the scenario created during Orson Welles' War of the Worlds radio broadcast, and use it to their advantage. Stalin was especially interested in using the idea to mask a nuclear first strike. The idea is to induce confusion and mass panic preceding or during the attack. If the enemy doesn't know for sure where an attack is coming from, they might delay retaliation. It might make more sense to wait and see, especially when the "end of the world" is at stake, and especially when an attack is perceived as coming from outer space, and not the cold war rival. Actually, George C. Scott's General Turgidsen did the best job explaining this strategy for winning a nuclear war using the first strike strategy. The idea is to severely disable the enemy from the outset. Von Neumann's game theory is at play, too. (Some people also claim that the Dr. Stranglove character is modeled on Von Neumann.) Coincidentally, Von Neumann actually advocated the first strike strategy, especially when the enemy cannot be trusted to not defect and use a first strike strategy. It's a classic 4-square game theory payoff matrix, a slight variant of the classic prisoner's dilemma puzzle.

That Mengele based claim is pretty far out there. I guess when all of the layers are stripped back, then what is left has to be the truth. Still, whoah!

Note: This post required some edits.

First Update:
The author made the rounds on the media circuit, culminating with a visit to Jon Stewart.

Reports from Fukushima

Amy sent this link about the ongoing problems at the Japanese nuclear plant. The news reports have been dwindling away, but the disaster is far from being solved or contained. News reports over the weekend noted that the Japanese government had increased the exclusion zone by evacuating a town about 20 miles (30 km) from the plant. The US government recommended a 50 mile evacuation zone, if I remember correctly. Here is one report with the news from the weekend, skip to 6:20 for the details about Fukushima.

New Arch for Chernobyl

This video was posted to reddit recently. A new structure is being planned to totally encompass the existing Chernobyl power plant site. The new arch will allow dismantling the existing sarcophagus containment building. The sarcophagus was built as quickly as possible, and was expected to last for a 20 year lifetime. The 25th anniversary of the accident is next Tuesday.

The Chernobyl and Fukishima nuclear accidents show that all of the costs must be included when deciding if nuclear power is worth the risk. The analysis must account for possible long term losses created by new "exclusion zones" necessitated by future nuclear accidents. Somehow, I don't think that has been properly factored into the current cost/benefit analysis. We only have one earth.

p.s. This Chernobyl documentary is worth watching.

More evidence that a smart grid is essential

We've already seen that power transmissions between states have low redundancy. Regional power transfers come down to a few critical links which can reach capacity, and can be knocked out when they are needed most. Does Enron and the 2001 California blackouts ring a bell here? Enron's blatant market manipulation took advantage of "deregulation" and a hot spring/summer along the Pacific coast to maximize their bottom line, but at the expense of power consumers. Add forest fires, people's willingness to pay for a utility/necessity and you have a "perfect storm" to gouge consumers to the hilt. Enron effectively set the cost per kilowatt on a daily basis. This worked (for a while) to pad Enron's bottom line, but eventually, the bottom fell out and along with the collapse, the truth came out: the blackouts had been artificially created, essentially a giant hoax perpetrated on the nation.

Almost ten years later, that same power grid is tied together in the same way. It is not up to transmitting power from decentralized sources from green energy. It's ironic that wind/solar farms have to be shutdown when demand is highest because there is insufficient power transmission capacity.

Here is Slashdot's headline.

p.s. This was an interesting broadcast about the aging power grid. Make sure to check the interactive graphic on that page. Note: this was a followup to story which appeared in National Geographic, here.

Deep Water Horizon Disaster: NY Times' Henry Fountain interviewed on Fresh Air by Dave Davies

This is a very interesting background report on the Deepwater Horizon disaster.

According to this report, cost cutting is always an issue. The fact is that delays and their extra costs should just be part of the equation of deep water drilling. Doing it right should be tantamount, especially with potential consequence. "Hurry up!" and "This is our well. Do it our way, afterall we're the one assuming the risk." We now see that it isn't just a single company that must pay the price- everyone is harmed. Entire industries and ecosystems are wiped off the map. All the way along, no one speaks up for the consequences of pollution and long term damage to wildlife and habitat.

Good Planets are Hard to Find
(Steve Forbert)

Good planets are hard to find,
Temp'rate zones and tropic climes,
True currents in thriving seas,
Winds blowin' through breathing trees,
Strong ozone and safe sunshine,
Good planets are hard to find.

Good planets are in demand,
Clean beaches and sparkling sand,
Land masses with room to spare,
Jet streams and perfect air,
High forests and low wetlands,
Good planets are in demand.

And the mind don't know
If the heart can't see;
Let the blind man go
To his destiny...

Good planets are rare indeed,
Rain fallin' on crops and seed,
Big rivers and good topsoil,
Fuel sources from cane to oil,
Green gardens of all we need,
Good planets are rare indeed.

And the mind don't know
If the heart can't see;
Let the blind man go
To his destiny...

Good planets are scarce and few,
Earthworms and caribou,
Strong food chains and tasty meals,
Textiles and plants that heal,
Iron mountains and skies of blue,
Good planets are scarce and few.

Update: I found this acoustic version of the song that Steve Forbert made available at the New York Times.

Offshore Oil : Relief Well Requirement

Canada requires that a relief well be drilled along side new offshore oil wells. BP recently argued that they are not necessary because of all of the other safety measures in place which make a blowout nearly impossible. We now see that "unlikely" scenario unfolding in the gulf. It may be months until the oil well flow is stopped, not weeks under the more safe procedure where a relief well was in place and could be used to kill the well. Here is an excellent report with some background information as reported by Peter Overby on NPR.

Update: NPR's On Point discussed the spill with a variety of guests, including Robert Reich. Reich argues that this is an emergency which requires nationalizing all of BP's resources, not just the ones which are "economically feasible." For example, their entire fleet of tankers could have been deployed near the spill site "vacuuming" the ocean for oil.