NPR: Fukushima Anniversary Discussions

Monday's On Point was a very interesting discussion. There is a real possibility that Japan will mothball all of its nuclear power because the risk the industry poses to all of Japan had been previously underestimated. Download audio.

Likewise, last Tuesday's Fresh Air. Download audio. This is an interview with Dan Edge, the producer of a Frontline documentary about the disaster.

Reports from Fukushima

Amy sent this link about the ongoing problems at the Japanese nuclear plant. The news reports have been dwindling away, but the disaster is far from being solved or contained. News reports over the weekend noted that the Japanese government had increased the exclusion zone by evacuating a town about 20 miles (30 km) from the plant. The US government recommended a 50 mile evacuation zone, if I remember correctly. Here is one report with the news from the weekend, skip to 6:20 for the details about Fukushima.

New Arch for Chernobyl

This video was posted to reddit recently. A new structure is being planned to totally encompass the existing Chernobyl power plant site. The new arch will allow dismantling the existing sarcophagus containment building. The sarcophagus was built as quickly as possible, and was expected to last for a 20 year lifetime. The 25th anniversary of the accident is next Tuesday.

The Chernobyl and Fukishima nuclear accidents show that all of the costs must be included when deciding if nuclear power is worth the risk. The analysis must account for possible long term losses created by new "exclusion zones" necessitated by future nuclear accidents. Somehow, I don't think that has been properly factored into the current cost/benefit analysis. We only have one earth.

p.s. This Chernobyl documentary is worth watching.

MIA: Obama

Check out Krugman's recent article in the NY Times on Obama. He'd better outline some real strategy soon, because this "no vision" thing is setting himself up to be voted out. The spark of his election is rapidly dying out. There's no use saving it up- now is the time!

Also, check out this recent radio program, On Point. Several callers nailed down the problems with our current government.

We need direction and leadership. How about proposing a national energy policy based on renewables, with a real commitment to get off fossil fuels. Renewable energy is looking cheaper all of the time, considering the unknown long term losses that the Chernobyl and Fukishima nuclear accidents will impose. Consider that the human element is enough of a problem, let alone the unpredictability of nature, and the 20,000+ year dangerous halflife of waste products. As currently built, nuclear is expensive. But I wonder, have our own major faults been adequately considered in our nuclear plant designs? The New Madrid fault is the elephant in the room. I hope it's not another case of an initial lowball estimate- the same kind of thing that allowed a 5.2m seawall, when a characteristic tsunami required a 10m. But, a 10m wall would have been cost prohibitive, and probably have put brakes on the entire project. Try out these slightly different lyrics played to the same tune,

That fault hasn't produced any major activity since 1812. And that was a fluke.

Crosses fingers...

Update: 2011-04-14
Obama gave an important speech on the topic yesterday at George Washington University.
Listen to it here:
1. Joe Biden is here. Tim Geithner is in the house...
2.
3.
4. "vision" is the keyword...

This speech is just too little, too late. 20/20 hindsight looks like he should have made redefining the tax code/rates his highest priority as president, certainly higher than health care reform. Now, he's a lot weaker because he seems to have already bought into the Republican agenda by agreeing to extend Bush-era tax cuts, even if only temporarily. The loss of the House enforces a stalemate. Now, nothing is going to change. The Republicans are going to circle wagons, and wait until 2012 and see if they can win the presidency. Obama's tone hinted that he knew it, too. That said, Obama's speech had a lot of good ideas, and I agree with all of his tax reform points. It's too bad that he glossed over energy. He really should have used this speech as an opportunity to state a Kennedy-like goal for national energy independence through renewables. He made no mention of the Japanese disaster, and the pall it casts over nuclear power.

If the speech was a cornerstone on taxes, then it was short on numbers, because even stating a tax rate for the rich is too controversial. To sell tax reform, hard numbers will be required. A proposal needs to offer simplification in exchange for an overall lower tax rate. The lower tax rate is possible because everyone has to pay! No loopholes, like I said, in an earlier post! I would like a flat tax with very limited deductions. The only deductions that I think should be allowed is a deduction for state taxes paid, and pretty much nothing else.

More evidence that a smart grid is essential

We've already seen that power transmissions between states have low redundancy. Regional power transfers come down to a few critical links which can reach capacity, and can be knocked out when they are needed most. Does Enron and the 2001 California blackouts ring a bell here? Enron's blatant market manipulation took advantage of "deregulation" and a hot spring/summer along the Pacific coast to maximize their bottom line, but at the expense of power consumers. Add forest fires, people's willingness to pay for a utility/necessity and you have a "perfect storm" to gouge consumers to the hilt. Enron effectively set the cost per kilowatt on a daily basis. This worked (for a while) to pad Enron's bottom line, but eventually, the bottom fell out and along with the collapse, the truth came out: the blackouts had been artificially created, essentially a giant hoax perpetrated on the nation.

Almost ten years later, that same power grid is tied together in the same way. It is not up to transmitting power from decentralized sources from green energy. It's ironic that wind/solar farms have to be shutdown when demand is highest because there is insufficient power transmission capacity.

Here is Slashdot's headline.

p.s. This was an interesting broadcast about the aging power grid. Make sure to check the interactive graphic on that page. Note: this was a followup to story which appeared in National Geographic, here.